The World Steel Association (worldsteel) forecasts GCC steel demand to fall by about 11% in 2026, a sharp reversal of the trajectory it published in April. 

“What we observe is not the destruction of demand but its deferral, as project awards, construction starts and financing decisions are pushed back while the security situation remains unresolved,” said Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, Chair of the worldsteel Economics Committee, according to an Emirates News Agency (WAM) report. 

“On that reading, steel demand in the Gulf should recover strongly once the uncertainty clears, the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and the supply chains normalise. Reflecting this optimistic scenario, we forecast a rebound of 11.3% in 2027, taking regional demand back to its 2025 level.”

Global demand unchanged

Meanwhile, global steel demand will remain essentially unchanged in 2026 at 1,722 Mt, before returning to growth of 1.7% in 2027 to reach 1,752 Mt.

de Calcerrada said: “The trajectory we set out in April holds, but the anticipated recovery is proving slower and more gradual than we had expected. Global steel demand is now forecast to be flat in 2026 rather than to grow modestly, and to grow by 1.7% in 2027 rather than 2.2%. Almost the whole of that revision is a China story. Outside China, demand grows by 1.5% this year and accelerates to 4.0% in 2027 — precisely the rate we projected six months ago, and one rarely seen in recent times.

“The recovery we described in April is therefore not weaker; its momentum is being masked by the scale of China’s structural contraction and compounded by energy-market disruptions stemming from ongoing instability in the Middle East,” he noted. —TradeArabia News Service