World oil production has reached a peak and by 2010 is likely to be in decline, according to new research presented by a think-tank at the University of Uppsala in Sweden.

The report by the Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group, including analysis from renowned geologist and oil industry expert Colin Campbell, laid out five different scenarios for future oil production patterns.
According to the study's 'base case' scenario, world production is expected to be flat until 2010 and start to decline thereafter.
According to the 'high' and 'very high' scenarios, output is still growing at between 1-2 per cent per year but will peak somewhere around 2007, maintaining a plateau level for some time before starting to decline somewhere around 2012-2013. These scenarios assume that oil demand and production will peak at the same time.
In the very high scenario, the share of global oil production from the five major Middle East' swing' producers, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, will be 40 per cent when output reaches a plateau peak but rise to 50 per cent by the time it starts declining.
A recurring theme throughout the report is the increasing importance that Middle East production will play in the future.
On the basis that world demand will remain flat until 2010, Middle East output by producers must increase by about 42 per cent until 2010 to balance world production and consumption. If the scenario that demand will increase by two per cent annually is used, production from the area must be doubled by 2013 and even if a lower scenario, an increase in production of 55 per cent would be required until 2018.