Germany’s BGA exporters’ association said it expected the world’s biggest exporter of goods to post another record trade surplus this year, but it was less optimistic about the outlook for 2007.

German exports will likely increase by 8 per cent to 849 billion euros ($1.017 trillion) in 2006, while imports will probably advance 9 per cent to 682 billion euros, producing a record trade surplus of 167 billion euros, the group said.
In December, the BGA forecast export growth of up to 8 per cent and import growth above the 2005 level of 8.7 per cent.
Last year, Germany’s trade surplus hit a record 160.5 billion euros, up from 156.1 billion in 2004.
“The booming global economy will keep German foreign trade rolling this year,” BGA president Anton Boerner said in a statement.
“But we are clearly more cautious about next year when, as well as a slowdown in domestic demand, we expect a dip in German foreign trade linked to a slight cooling of global growth,” Boerner added.
Germany’s gross domestic product (GDP) would likely grow by around 1.5 per cent this year, the BGA said, in line with its January forecast and the government’s growth outlook. The growth estimate is less optimistic than some private economists who expect expansion of as much as 2 per cent.
“Without foreign trade Germany would again be on the brink of recession,” Boerner said. “More courageous reforms would not hurt to give domestic demand the necessary boost!”     Boerner said government plans to reform the German federal system and boost growth through tax incentives were a positive signal, but that further steps were necessary.