Qatar forecasts GDP to grow 8pc
Qatar expects a real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of more than eight per cent this year and a slight cooling of inflation to around 6 per cent, said a senior minister.

“Inflation will be in the same range but less by a per cent than last year’s range, which was 6.7 per cent,” Youssef Hussein Kamal, who is also the acting minister of economy and commerce, told Reuters.
He said GDP growth would exceed eight per cent in real terms but the exact level would depend on oil prices.
Kamal told a panel at an economic forum in Doha earlier that he expected the economy to nearly double from about $37 billion at present to more than $65 billion by 2011. The economy of Qatar, which has a population of less than 1 million and is home to the world’s third largest gas deposits, has tripled since 1998, making it among the world’s fastest growing economies.
The country’s ruler has described inflation as the only “negative indicator” in the economy.
Kamal said inflation figures had been distorted by a rapid rise in rents, which he said constitute about a third of the country’s price index.
“The reason for the inflation is the increase in rents of more than 100 per cent in the last period,” he told the panel.
“Everyone knows that if we have a growth rate of 15 per cent per year there will be higher inflation when the capacity in terms of infrastructure is limited.”
Property prices and rents have surged in several Gulf Arab nations in recent years as the region’s economies flourished on high income from oil exports.
The country’s new budget, which forecasts a surplus of QR2.3 billion ($632.2 million), boosts spending on infrastructure projects and education and health by 71 per cent from last year to try to keep pace with growth, Kamal said.
“The capacity of Qatar is not what it should be for the level of growth we have,” he said.
“The roads, the sewage, the port, the airport, are all underdeveloped but after 13 months they should be ready for the growth we are expecting in the future.”
Ibrahim said Qatar’s revenue from LNG grew from QR8 billion in 1999 to QR26 billion in 2005. Oil and gas revenues catapulted the Gulf state’s GDP per capita to about $40,000, among the highest in the world, said Steve Brice of Standard Chartered Bank in Dubai.
He estimated that if oil prices were to rise to $80 a barrel, Qatar’s per capita GDP could surge to $100,000.

Bahrain sees surplus
Bahrain’s strong economy should mean budget surpluses for at least three years, according to a global ratings agency.
The good news comes as the country’s ratings are upgraded across the board by London-based Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services. It has upgraded Bahrain’s long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating from to A from A-.
The short-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating has been raised to A-1 from A-2, by the watchdog. The foreign currency rating outlook has been improved from ‘positive’ to ‘stable’.
“The upgrade is supported by the government’s continued structural reforms and prudent financial policies, in particular accelerated privatisation and improved fiscal transparency,” said S & P credit analyst Luc Marchand.
The ratings on Bahrain are supported by a strong government net asset position, which is estimated at about 59 per cent of the gross domestic product by the end of this year.
It is forecast to remain at more than 50 per cent of GDP until 2009.
This compares very well with an estimated net debt position of about 20.1 per cent of GDP in 2006 for Bahrain’s A rated sovereign peers.
Oil revenues are conservatively budgeted by the authorities and S&P expects the budget to show a surplus, including extra-budgetary expenditures of 3.6 per cent of GDP in this year (about 1.8 per cent for the central government only).
This will be followed by smaller surpluses of 2 per cent to 3.5 per cent in 2007-2009, as oil prices are forecast to decrease.
“The stable outlook balances the strong fiscal and economic situation with the risk of slippage in reforms should there be deterioration in domestic or regional stability,” said Marchand.

Oman to spend $10bn on oil
Oman plans to spend $10 billion within the next five years to increase its oil and natural gas output, the non-Opec state’s oil minister said.
“We want to increase (oil) production to 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) by 2010 or 2011 from around 780,000 now and want to double gas output to 70-80 million cubic metres per day,” Oil Minister Mohammad bin Hamad bin Seif Al Rumhy said.
“In Oman, we plan to spend more than $10 billion in the current five-year plan to sustain and develop production of oil and gas,” he added. The hydrocarbons sector accounts for 80 per cent of Oman’s export earnings and 40 per cent of its gross domestic product.
Rumhy has previously said that Oman’s oil production fell about 30,000 bpd to an estimated average of 730,000 bpd in 2005. Oman is developing or tendering for the development of several oil fields with the help of foreign firms.

Saudi rating raised
Standard & Poor’s has raised its long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating on Saudi Arabia to ‘A+’ from ‘A’ on the government’s strengthened external financial position.S&P affirmed the ‘A+’ long-term local currency and ‘A-1’ short-term sovereign credit ratings. The outlook on both the foreign and local currency ratings is stable.
The long-term foreign currency rating was put on positive outlook in early January 2006, S&P said in a statement. Foreign reserves of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, also known as the Sama, have increased rapidly in recent years, and are expected to top $220 billion by year-end 2006 from $92 billion in 2004 - sufficient to cover about 23 months of current account payments, including private transfers, S&P said.
“In addition, the central government has no external debt, nor does it plan to incur any.”  S&P said.  “Overall, Saudi Arabia is expected to have a net external asset position of more than 90 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) by end-2006.”