The world’s top economies will post moderate growth this year, capped by high oil prices, with the United States putting in the best performance, a Reuters poll of around 150 economists showed.

The quarterly survey on the outlook for the Group of Seven industrialised nations showed that economists have cut their growth forecasts for the euro zone and Canada since January, but are now slightly more optimistic about Japan and the United States.
US gross domestic product (GDP), adjusted by Reuters for international comparisons, was seen expanding at 3.8 percent this year, up from the 3.6 percent forecast in the January survey.
“We are still seeing broad growth, not just with the consumer and with housing, but also the business sector, which is contributing quite a bit more to the economy. And that is making the economy pretty resilient,” said Gary Thayer, chief economist at AG Edwards in St. Louis.
The mid-range forecasts in the survey are recalculated where necessary to give straight percentage changes between full calendar years. The original, annualised, forecast for US GDP growth was 3.6 per cent this year and 3.4 per cent in 2006.
Economists said that higher oil prices could have some negative effects on growth in the United States and elsewhere. If oil prices stay at $50 or above for the rest of the year, the survey showed them shaving on average 0.25 percentage points off annual growth in Europe and US.
But the poll showed the US crude oil price averaging $50 this year and Brent crude at $45 — both below current levels.
Weaker than expected growth in the final quarter of 2004, along with high oil prices at the start of this year, prompted economists to lower their forecasts for the 12-nation euro zone.
The median showed euro zone GDP growing 1.5 per cent in 2005 — down from 1.8 per cent growth predicted in the January poll.
Britain’s GDP was forecast to grow 2.6 per cent this year, unchanged from the view in the last poll, and down from 3.1 per cent in 2004.
In Japan, by contrast, growth was seen improving, albeit very slowly, after shrinking for two straight quarters in 2004.
In the current calendar year it was seen growing 1.0 percent, with deflation coming to an end in early 2006.
In Canada, growth prospects have been dampened by the strength of its currency. The Canadian dollar climbed some 30 per cent against its US equivalent in 2003 and 2004 and had recently been trading in the 80-83 US cents band.