Global demand for mobile phones is expected to rise 5.8 per cent in 2005, less than half the growth seen for 2004 and another sign the market is becoming saturated, a Japanese industry group said.

The Japan Electronics and Information Technology Industries Association (JEITA) forecast global mobile phone demand would rise to 599.4 million units in 2005 after an estimated rise of 12.9 per cent to 566.5 million units in 2004.
The forecasts cover 46 countries, accounting for 90-95 per cent of cellphone demand worldwide.
“Robust demand for new mobile phones in countries such as China and India, and demand for replacement models in regions with high penetration rates like Western European countries, have been contributing to overall growth in 2004,” said JEITA, which raised its 2004 global demand forecast from 479.4 million, estimated a year ago.
“Major carriers introduced new third-generation services in 2004, but we believe they will come into wide use after 2006.”
JEITA’s global demand outlook for 2004 was less optimistic than those of some mobile phone makers.
Finland’s Nokia, the world’s number-one mobile phone maker, has forecast the 2004 global market will reach 630 million units, and South Korea’s Samsung Electronics, which overtook US-based Motorola as the world’s second-biggest mobile phone maker in the third quarter of 2004, has projected 620 million units. Although Samsung raised its 2004 forecast from a July estimate of 600 million units, it said in October it expected global growth in mobile phones to halve next year to less than 10 percent from a forecast 19 per cent in 2004.
Motorola is in contrast bullish on outlook, saying the market will grow to one billion units over the next few years.