New construction projects to increase demand for oil

China's 16 major oil refineries will boost daily output by about six per cent or 160,000 barrels this year to meet an anticipated rebound in oil demand in the world's second-largest consumer, a survey shows.

The plants, representing around 45 per cent of China's total capacity and including one new refinery being built on Hainan island, are expected to process 2.79 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude this year, versus 2.63 million bpd in 2005.
"That rate (six per cent) is about the level we foresee China's fuel demand growth for this year, thus we planned production rates accordingly," said a Beijing-based official with top refiner Sinopec.
Those plans should give analysts more faith in forecasts for a recovery in demand growth, a factor helping to keep oil prices supported. This followed last year's paltry 3 percent expansion, which surprised markets that were counting on more robust data, especially with the economy growing at 9 percent or more.
Nationwide, China's refiners raised runs by 6.5 per cent to 5.7 million barrels per day (bpd) last year, but weak demand and loss-making domestic retail prices also prompted more exports.
The forecast includes estimated output at a greenfield 160,000-bpd refinery that Sinopec is building in the country's southernmost tip, Hainan, which is scheduled to start up in June.
A total of 650,000 bpd in primary refining capacity will be added this year at the main plants, the survey found.
But most are slated for operation in the second half, which means they will contribute to limited incremental supply this year and could leave the market short during summer when demand normally picks up while most refineries will be operating at full capacity.
That may require Chinese oil firms, whose lack of appetite for imports last year undermined prices for diesel and fuel oil, to increase purchases to plug the shortage.
The world's sixth-largest economy will need more fuel as construction projects intensify, although power-sector demand is likely to wane with the start-up of more coal- and gas-fired plants.

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